Centrum Stosunków Międzynarodowych

A ceasefire between government and opposition forces in Syria, excluding ISIS and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), came into effect on Monday at sundown. According to initial reports fighting indeed stopped, small violations notwithstanding. AFP correspondents in Aleppo and Damascus, as well as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said that the night passed without significant exchanges of fire. Despite a successful start, opposition groups express scepticism whether the cease will last more that the initial 48 hours, while humanitarian wait for further proof of its durability before resuming aid deliveries.

The ceasefire is a key part of a plan announced on Saturday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US secretary of State John Kerry. It envisions a halt in fighting between government forces and a majority of opposition groups, as well as joint military operations against ISIS and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, the latter being affiliated with al-Qa’ida until recently. The plan was met with mixed reactions: Syrian government, Iran and Hezbollah expressed their support while opposition expressed lack of trust in Damascus’ will to abide by its terms. Eventually, all major opposition groups, including the Free Syrian Army, Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam, agreed to the agreement with serious reservations.

According to the agreement, the ceasefire is set to last 48 hours and be renewed for successive 48 hour periods provided it is being observed by both sides. In the meantime Syrian and Russian air force is to stop strikes on clearly defined areas under opposition control and humanitarian aid to besieged cities is to be resumed. If the ceasefire lasts a week, American and Russian forces will begin coordinated actions against ISIS and Jabhat al-Sham.

Syrian opposition groups are wary of the decision to exclude Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, as its units form the core of anti-Asad forces in several crucial areas in Aleppo and Idlib province and separating from them might be a tall order. Furthermore, it would be unrealistic to expect the group to help in a plan that envisions its destruction.

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12 September 2016: Syria ceasefire comes into effect

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