Centrum Stosunków Międzynarodowych - 17 October 2016: Offensive to retake Mosul begins

Iraqi government and Kurdish forces launched on Monday an offensive to retake Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, from ISIS. The city, which had been taken in a lightning assault in June 2014, represents the group’s last major stronghold in the country and is defended by an estimated 4,000 to 8,000 fighters. Approximately 1 million people still live in the city, raising fears of civilian casualties, refugee outflow and massacres along sectarian lines. The offensive receives significant air support for US-led anti-ISIS coalition planes.

The forces arrayed against ISIS compose of army and special forces units, police officers, Shi’a militias, fighters recruited from local Sunni tribes. Seasoned Kurdish peshmerga fighters support the assault from the east. The aim of the initial phase of the offensive is to cut off escape routes from the city and reduce push ISIS fighters back to the city. Fighting is thus limited to villages at the outskirts of Mosul, where resistance is relatively light and according to US Department of Defence the offensive was ahead of schedule as of Monday evening. ISIS is fighting rearguard action, utilising IEDs, mortar barrages, suicide bombings and burning tires to slow down the advancing forces.

Kurdish forces are expected to advance up to a line agreed with the central government and then stop to avoid any conflicts over the eventual control of the liberated territory. Conversely, Shi’ite militias have not been authorised to enter Mosul proper due to fears of ethnic cleansing in the majority Sunni city.

The battle for the city itself is expected to be particularly fierce, as ISIS fighters had the opportunity to entrench and build a network of tunnels that will allow them to perform hit-and-run attacks. Moreover, they are deliberately mixing with civilians, according to reports from inside the city, which hinders air strikes. Meanwhile, two plots to deliver the city to Iraqi government forces were detected and the plotters executed by ISIS.

There are also multiple reports of civilians being stopped from leaving the city by ISIS militants. The UN expects up to 700,000 refugees, far outstripping the capacity of prepared refugee camps which is pegged at 60,000. The government has asked the civilians to remain in their homes in order to avoid a humanitarian crisis even if their presence may complicate military operations.