Centrum Stosunków Międzynarodowych - 20 August 2016: Ukraine’s Poroshenko has official calls with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Turkish President Erdogan on security in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea

Last weeks’ escalation of violence in the Donbass region and the increasing tension along the Crimean border have rocked priorities of international chancelleries. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden had a phone call on August 20th, pointing out security issues and the importance of political-diplomatic efforts to de-occupy Crimea. Donbass turmoil, with Russian-backed militants, continue shelling, including with banned heavy weapons, and large-scale military drills near the Russian-Ukrainian border, was also on the table.

U.S. commitment in the region is to be considered as important as Russian separatists’ activity will intensify, as it is demonstrated by the (although, not confirmed) recent moving of U.S. nukes from Turkey to Romania.

The same day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reassured his Ukrainian counterpart that Ankara will continue to not recognize Russian “occupation” of Crimean territories. “Turkey has not changed its unwavering position regarding its support of Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity in the country’s internationally recognized borders”, Ukrainian presidential press service reads.

Tension between Russia and Ukraine backs to warning levels after Moscow accused Ukrainian government of having discovered a group of Ukrainian-backed saboteurs in a suburb of Crimean city of Armyansk on August 7th and 8th. On August 10th, the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB) accused the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine of preparing other terrorist acts in the annexed Crimea. “Nine suspected have already been detained, and two of them have been arrested. In the next days they could be charged under various articles, including those related to the organization of terrorist acts and complicity in terrorist activities” reported on August 15th the Human Rights Information Centre (HRIC). FSB declared at least two of the FSB officers killed during arrest operations and dozens of Ukrainian and Russian citizens put under suspicion. Kyiv totally rejects such insinuations while claiming the groundlessness of Moscow allegations. At the same time, Ukraine's State Border Guard Service says on August 21st that another "famous Russian writer" and critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Kyiv to grant him political asylum after arriving at the Ukraine-Belarus border.

Similarly, Russian destabilisation actions has notably increased in the Donbass region, with Russian-backed separatist forces which have multiplied attacks against Ukrainian positions. "Over the last day, the enemy increased its activities. The Russian occupation forces fire 71 times at the anti-terrorist operation units. 26 ceasefire violations were recorded in the Donetsk sector, where the militants fired 120mm- and 82mm-calibre mortars, grenade launchers and small guns. In the Mariupol sector, the Russian-backed separatist forces launched 38 attacks against Ukrainian positions," the Ukrainian army press centre reads on August 21st. More specifically, the growing military pressure and instability in the Mariupol area is of major concern for Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko and Western allied diplomacies in view of the upcoming Duma elections (18th Sept.) and the related need of refreshing and reinvigorating Putin’s nationalism over a presumed Ukrainian threat nearby Russian borders.

The precarious situation in the region, along with the extreme fragility of the Minsk Agreement, is leading President Poroshenko to seek a solid international support within the international community. The deteriorated Washington-Ankara diplomatic relations after the failed coup in Turkey could have convinced U.S. President Obama to intensify deterrence in the region. It is, however, Ankara’s double-crossing a source of uncertainty, as well: after the 9th August St. Petersburg Erdogan-Putin meeting, which normalised relations with the Kremlin after the low point of 2015, Turkey position on Ukraine conflict is as ambiguous as dangerous for international political stability in the near future. Ukraine’s need of support have also been discussed by Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN Volodymyr Yelchenko at a meeting with the UN Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson on August 20th, stressing concentration of Russian troops along Ukrainian-Russian border and the necessity to enforce the observation of Minsk compromise.