Centrum Stosunków Międzynarodowych - 21 October 2016: Montenegro’s struggle to form the new coalition government

In the aftermath of Sunday’s 16 parliamentary election, which confirmed the incumbent PM Milo Djukanovic’s party as the major force in the country with 36 seats won out of 81, uncertainty and polemics are characterizing the Montenegro’s political life on the way of forming a new governing coalition. The Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) and the Centre for Monitoring and Research (CEMI) registered an official voter turnout of 73.2% but also pressures, abuses and irregularities during vote procedures.

As much Djukanovic’s DPS as pro-Russian and pro-Serbian opposition fronts claimed to have potentially won the polls as they both are sure to be able to reach 50% plus one majority considering their respective coalition’s allies. Numerically, Djukanovic needs just 6 seats to form a governing coalition. They will be almost certainly obtained from the Social Democratic Party - two seats, the small Bosnian party - three seats, and the Albanian and Croatian minority parties, which resulted with one each.

As far as the opposition front is concerned, the Democratic Forum, an anti-Western party with stronger ties with Serbia and Russia, have gained 18 seats, which, combined with seats from all other opposition parties, could garner as many as 42 seats. Presented as a choice between two different civilization and development paths, the Western and the Russian one, the election reaffirmed Djukanovic’s to be the first party in the small Balkan country for the seventh time in a row.

“Immediately after the announcement of the official vote count, we will start negotiations and we will form the government” and, despite uncertainty, “tonight we can safely say that Montenegro is heading toward the European integrations and we will soon ratify the accession agreement with NATO,” the PM announced after the polls closed.

In that regard, this year’s election represented the first concrete threat for Djukanovic’s 27-year reign due to the strength of his rivals. The latter expressed disappointment for the election’s outcome as the four opposition groups won 40 mandates while DPS just 36 complaining also about alleged abuses. On Monday 17, oppositions declared they will not recognize the result of parliamentary elections because of the irregularities and an anti-terrorist campaign carried out by the state policy.

The outcome of those negotiations will determine whether the state continues on its Western course or turns back to traditional ally Russia, even though the DPS seems to be in a better position than the opposition. Whatever the final outcome, the new government will be composed by a very shaky majority. However, the tiny Balkan country needs both Western investments and Russian energy resources. With a fast-pace growing dynamic economy and a strategic position in the Balkan Peninsula, Montenegro cannot afford political instability allowing Russia and Serbia to undermine the country’s road to Western integration.