Centrum Stosunków Międzynarodowych - 11 October 2016: “Hard Brexit” may cost the UK about 66 billion pounds a year

In case of a “hard Brexit”, the UK can lose about £66 billion a year in government revenues. According to a leaked Treasury paper that was seen by The Times, such economic losses would be possible if London, after talks with Brussels, loses preferential access to the common EU market. In case of the country's exit from the European single market its GDP could fall by between 5.4% and 9.5% in 15 years.

Even if the UK does not contribute money to the EU budget during a “hard Brexit”, it will lose at least 38 billion pounds per year. UK politicians supporting “soft Brexit” (exiting the European Union while staying in the common European Economic Area) state that “hard Brexit” would cause terrible harm to the country's economy. Former business minister Anna Soubry argued that under such a scenario “less tax revenue means less to invest in schools and hospitals, lower trade and investment means businesses and jobs at risk”.

Supporters of the “soft Brexit” insist on participation of Parliament in the negotiations between Britain and the EU as it would alleviate the terrible economic consequences for the country.